Hurricane Local Statement for FAY

000
WTUS84 KMOB 240343
HLSMOB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1043 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008


...FAY WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING COULD
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...

AT 10 PM CDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES...EAST-NORTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA AND ABOUT 30 MILES NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH.  A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT FAY COULD BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ON MONDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING
OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI ON SUNDAY...AND WILL BE
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI OR EASTERN LOUISIANA ON MONDAY.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WSR-88D RADAR DATA
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. VERY GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS 999
MB...29.50 INCHES.

ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-240445-
/O.CAN.KMOB.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1043 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

...NEW INFORMATION...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO THE MISSISSIPPI-
ALABAMA LINE HAS BEEN CANCELED.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

AS OF 1030 PM CDT...LOCAL TIDE GAGES INDICATE THAT ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES ARE RUNNING TWO FEET BELOW NORMAL WEST OF PENSACOLA PASS. TIDE
LEVELS ARE INCREASING EAST OF PENSACOLA PASS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE
WINDS HAVE NOW SHIFTED ONSHORE. THIS TREND WILL SPREAD WESTWARD
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK AND SPEED...MAXIMUM
STORM TOTAL TIDE HEIGHTS ALONG THE COAST COULD STILL REACH 2 TO 4
FEET IN SOME AREAS.  A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM DESTIN TO
PASCAGOULA WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY BY THE NWS IN MOBILE.

ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BETWEEN 2 AM AND 5 AM OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

A HIGH RISK OF VERY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IN THE SURF AT AREA BEACHES
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF DURING THIS EVENT
WILL BE ENDANGERING THEIR LIVES. MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION
ALONG THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ALABAMA GULF COAST WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.

...WINDS...

THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH OVER LAND AREAS CLOSE TO THE COAST...AND 20 TO
30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
50 MPH BY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS THE
CENTER OF FAY MOVES BY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL THEN SPREAD
FARTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...30 KNOT WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
AFFECT THE GULF WATERS OFF DESTIN... NAVARRE AND PENSACOLA THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE ALABAMA
GULF COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. SEAS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET ARE FORECAST OVER THE GULF WATERS.

...INLAND FLOODING...

HEAVY RAINS WILL ONSET FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT. DURING THE
30 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 1 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING...SOME 8 TO 12 INCHES
OF RAIN COULD FALL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 15
INCHES POSSIBLE IN PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN BANDS ON THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST SIDE OF FAY. THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE AXIS OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. HEAVY RAINS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE CENTER
OF FAY MOVES WESTWARD.

THE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOODING IN THE SHORT-TERM. IN THE LONGER TERM... WIDESPREAD
MODERATE FLOODING OF RIVERS AND STREAMS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WHERE HEAVIER RAINS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST AND ARE NO
OCCURRING. 

BASED ON EXPECTED RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...A FEW RIVERS IN
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE ARE FORECAST TO
GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI RIVERS ARE NOT FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

FOR THE MOST SPECIFIC TIME THAT FLOODING MAY BEGIN ON INDIVIDUAL
RIVERS PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING NWS MOBILE ALABAMA WEB SITE:

HTTP:\\WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV\MOB AND SELECT "RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS."

...TORNADOES...

THE RISK OF TORNADOES IN OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
FAY'S REMNANTS MOVE WESTWARD. THE RAIN BANDS ON THE EAST SIDE ARE
MOST APT TO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM FAY.

$$

ALZ051>060-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-240445-
/O.CAN.KMOB.HU.S.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
1043 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

...NEW INFORMATION...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FORM DESTIN TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA
LINE HAS BEEN CANCELED.

...INLAND FLOODING...

HEAVY RAINS WILL ONSET FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT. DURING THE
30 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 1 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING...SOME 8 TO 12 INCHES
OF RAIN COULD FALL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 15
INCHES POSSIBLE IN PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN BANDS ON THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST SIDE OF FAY. THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE AXIS OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. HEAVY RAINS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE CENTER
OF FAY MOVES WESTWARD.

THE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOODING IN THE SHORT-TERM. IN THE LONGER TERM... WIDESPREAD
MODERATE FLOODING OF RIVERS AND STREAMS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WHERE HEAVIER RAINS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST AND ARE NO
OCCURRING. 

BASED ON EXPECTED RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...A FEW RIVERS IN
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE ARE FORECAST TO
GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI RIVERS ARE NOT FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

FOR THE MOST SPECIFIC TIME THAT FLOODING MAY BEGIN ON INDIVIDUAL
RIVERS PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING NWS MOBILE ALABAMA WEB SITE:

HTTP:\\WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV\MOB AND SELECT "RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS."


...TORNADOES...

THE RISK OF TORNADOES IN OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
FAY'S REMNANTS MOVE WESTWARD. THE RAIN BANDS ON THE EAST SIDE ARE
MOST APT TO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM FAY.

$$

MEDLIN