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Changes to the Tropical Weather Outlook for 2014

Service Change Notice
28 February 2014

During the 2013 hurricane season, NHC extended the time period covered in the Tropical Weather Outlook text product to 5 days on an experimental basis. This year, the experimental 5-day Outlook forecasts become operational, and the form of the TWO will change slightly. In 2013, formation probabilities were embedded within the paragraph describing each disturbance. In 2014, the formation probabilities will appear in a tabular form beneath each paragraph. The product will also be issued in mixed case with a full complement of punctuation symbols.

Example of Tropical Weather Outlook for 2014

200 PM EDT MON OCT 14 2013

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly
formed Tropical Depression Eleven, located in the central Gulf of

A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
south-southwest of Jamaica is accompanied by showers and
thunderstorms.  This disturbance remains disorganized, and
development, if any, should be slow to occur over the next couple of
days while it moves slowly northwestward.  Environmental
conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some
development when the system moves over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico later this week.  Locally
heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Haiti and Jamaica
today, and will likely spread across the Cayman Islands and
eastern Cuba on Tuesday. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent

A westward-moving tropical wave is producing showers and
 thunderstorms across the Windward Islands.  However, upper-level
 winds are becoming unfavorable for further development of this
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

A non-tropical area of low pressure could develop over the next
couple of days a few hundred miles east of Bermuda, and this low
will have some potential to gradually acquire tropical
characteristics as it moves slowly southward. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent


Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under
WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPNT1. 
Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMNT1.

Forecaster Franklin

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Page last modified: Friday, 23-May-2014 16:53:40 UTC