Changes to the Tropical Weather Outlook for 2014
Service Change Notice
28 February 2014
During the 2013 hurricane season, NHC extended the time period covered in the Tropical Weather Outlook text product to 5 days on an experimental basis. This year, the experimental 5-day Outlook forecasts become operational, and the form of the TWO will change slightly. In 2013, formation probabilities were embedded within the paragraph describing each disturbance. In 2014, the formation probabilities will appear in a tabular form beneath each paragraph. The product will also be issued in mixed case with a full complement of punctuation symbols.
Example of Tropical Weather Outlook for 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON OCT 14 2013 For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Eleven, located in the central Gulf of Mexico. A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of Jamaica is accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. This disturbance remains disorganized, and development, if any, should be slow to occur over the next couple of days while it moves slowly northwestward. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some development when the system moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico later this week. Locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Haiti and Jamaica today, and will likely spread across the Cayman Islands and eastern Cuba on Tuesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent A westward-moving tropical wave is producing showers and thunderstorms across the Windward Islands. However, upper-level winds are becoming unfavorable for further development of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent A non-tropical area of low pressure could develop over the next couple of days a few hundred miles east of Bermuda, and this low will have some potential to gradually acquire tropical characteristics as it moves slowly southward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPNT1. Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMNT1. $$ Forecaster Franklin