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TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016
1000 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2016

Earl is already well inland over northern Guatemala, and although
visible satellite images still show a vigorous circulation, the
convection is rapidly decreasing. There are no wind observations
near the center, but the best estimate of the initial intensity is
45 kt. Since most of the circulation of Earl is forecast to move
over the high terrain of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico, rapid
weakening is anticipated. Earl is expected to degenerate into a
tropical depression tonight and into a remnant low in a day or
so.

Earl has been moving south of due west or 265 degrees at 10 kt. The
cyclone is trapped south of a ridge, and given that the steering
flow is not expected to change, a continued westward track is
anticipated for the next day or two.  This forecast motion over land
reduces the chances of reintensification in the extreme southern
portion of the Bay of Campeche.

Despite the current weakening, Earl is capable of producing very
heavy rains over a large portion of Central America and southeastern
Mexico. In addition, global models continue to show a much
larger-scale cyclonic gyre over southern Mexico during the next few
days. This weather pattern will likely lead to torrential rains,
with isolated precipitation totals of 18 inches possible.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 17.2N  89.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 17.5N  91.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  05/1200Z 18.0N  93.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  06/0000Z 18.5N  95.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  06/1200Z 19.0N  97.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  07/1200Z 19.5N 100.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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