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HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
400 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015

Patricia has become significantly better organized overnight, with
an eye evident on infrared imagery, and the system now has
well-defined convective banding features.  The initial intensity
estimate is set at 75 kt, which is above the Dvorak estimates from
TAFB and SAB at 0600 UTC to account for the increased organization
since that time.  This is also in good agreement with the most
recent ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS.  Upper-level outflow is strong,
as evidenced by the expanding cirrus canopy.

The hurricane has been moving a little faster toward the
west-northwest, or around 295/15 kt.  There has not been much change
to the track forecast philosophy.  Patricia is likely to move around
the southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric high pressure area
during the next day or so.  By late Friday, the system should turn
toward the north-northeast as it moves between the high and a
trough over extreme northwestern Mexico.  The official track
forecast is nudged very slightly to the west to account for a
slight westward shift in the GFS/ECMWF consensus.  This is also
very close to the overall dynamical model consensus.

The environment appears to be very conducive for strengthening for
the next 24 hours or so, with some increase in south-southwesterly
shear and some mid-tropospheric drying later on Friday.  An earlier
37 GHz GPM image showed a cyan ring around the eye, which often
presages rapid intensification.  Given that, and the currently
favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, rapid strengthening
(30 kt over 24 h) is forecast through tonight followed by a slower
pace of intensification up to landfall.  This is in good agreement
with the latest DSHIPS prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 14.3N 102.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 15.3N 103.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 16.5N 105.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 18.0N 105.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 20.3N 104.8W   80 KT  90 MPH...INLAND
 72H  25/0600Z 25.0N 101.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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