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HURRICANE CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
100 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS CARLOS HAS REGAINED HURRICANE
STATUS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 102.8W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas

Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Carlos.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near
latitude 16.9 North, longitude 102.8 West. Carlos is moving toward
the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue through Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the
northwest on Wednesday.  On the forecast track, Carlos will move
parallel to and just offshore of the southern coast of Mexico over
the next day or two. However, only a small deviation to the north of
the forecast track could bring the core of the hurricane to the
coastline.

Reports from an United States Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter
aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to
75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts, once again making Carlos a
category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Some additional slight strengthening is possible during the next
day or so.

Carlos remains a small cyclone.  Tropical-storm-force winds only
extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the warning
area today.  Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane
watch area by Tuesday morning.

RAINFALL:  Carlos is expected to produce rains in the Mexican states
of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, with rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Wednesday, and
maximum totals of 15 inches possible.  These rains may produce life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of
higher terrain.

SURF:  Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of
southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days.  These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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