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HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
800 PM EDT THU OCT 01 2015

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE JOAQUIN BATTERING THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 74.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM ESE OF CLARENCE TOWN LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.49 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Los Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands,
Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
* The Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeastern
Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bimini
* Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Remainder of the southeastern Bahamas including the Turks and
Caicos Islands
* Andros Island
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Los Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Joaquin
was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 74.5 West. Joaquin
is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a
west-southwestward or westward motion is expected through tonight. A
turn toward the north is expected on Friday, and a faster motion
toward the north is expected Friday night and Saturday.  On the
forecast track, the core of strongest winds of Joaquin will move
near or over portions of the central Bahamas tonight and pass near
or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Joaquin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some additional strengthening is possible
tonight and Friday, with some fluctuations in intensity possible
Friday night and Saturday.

Joaquin is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 50 miles (80 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).  A wind gust to 55
mph (89 km/h) has recently been reported at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 931 mb (27.49 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to continue across portions
of the central and southeastern Bahamas through Friday. Hurricane
conditions are expected over portions of the northwestern Bahamas
tonight and Friday.  Tropical storm conditions will affect other
portions of the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos
Islands through Friday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected
over portions of eastern Cuba through Friday morning.

STORM SURGE:  A very dangerous and life-threatening storm surge will
raise water levels by as much as 5 to 10 feet above normal tide
levels in the central Bahamas in areas of onshore flow.  A storm
surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is expected in the
remainder of the Bahamas within the hurricane warning area.  Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
waves.

RAINFALL:  Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches over the central Bahamas with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches.  Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are
expected over the southeastern Bahamas, with 2 to 4 inches over the
northwestern Bahamas. This rainfall could result in life-threatening
flash floods.  Outer rain bands of Joaquin may affect portions of
eastern Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic today and tonight.

SURF:  Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the
Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions
of the southeastern coast of the United States tonight and spread
northward through the weekend.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Regardless of
Joaquin's track, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and
large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant
beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Stewart

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