Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm GENEVIEVE


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072014
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

Satellite images indicate that upper-level westerly winds are
impinging on the cyclone, and the low-level center continues to
be located to the west of the convection as indicated by the latest
SSMI pass.  Additional analysis of an earlier ASCAT data indicate
that winds associated with Genevieve are 40 knots in a small area to
the northeast of the center. This is the intensity assigned to the
storm at this time, and it was probably the intensity 6 hours ago.
Genevieve appears to have reached it's peak intensity. No further
strengthening is anticipated since a band of very strong upper-level
westerly winds already to the north of the cyclone is forecast by
most of the global models to move closer to Genevieve. This should
result in shear and weakening. Neither statistical nor dynamical
models forecast a significant intensification of the cyclone.

Genevieve is moving westward at 9 knots. The cyclone is embedded
within weak steering currents as a small trough in the westerlies
swings eastward breaking the subtropical ridge. However, the ridge
is forecast to rebuild westward as the trough moves out, and this
pattern will keep Genevieve on a general westward track for the next
5 days.  During the latter portion of the forecast, the cyclone will
likely become a shallow post-tropical cyclone, steered westward by
the low-level flow. This is the solution provided by most of the
track models, and the official forecast is basically on top of the
multi-model consensus guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 12.3N 135.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 12.4N 136.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 12.6N 137.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 13.0N 138.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 13.4N 140.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 13.8N 143.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  29/1200Z 14.0N 146.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/1200Z 14.5N 150.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 26-Nov-2014 12:09:41 UTC