Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane AMANDA


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
800 PM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014

Amanda has continued to rapidly intensify over the past few hours,
with the cloud pattern now featuring a ring of very cold cloud tops
surrounding an eye that has quickly cleared out and warmed in the
last several infrared images. The latest Dvorak satellite estimates
include a T5.5/102 kt from SAB at 00Z, a T6.0/115 kt from a special
02Z TAFB classification, and 92 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT at 0200Z.
Based on a blend of these, the initial intensity has been set to 100
kt, and this could be conservative given the trends seen in the
latest infrared images.

Additional intensification appears likely over the next 12 to 24
hours. The NHC forecast in the short term is above all of the
guidance, but is closest to the FSU Superensemble. By 36 hours,
steady weakening is expected to begin as Amanda encounters
increasing shear ahead of an approaching mid-/upper-level trough and
SSTs cool along the forecast track. The NHC forecast late in the
period is close to the intensity consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 295/04. Amanda is expected to turn
northwestward by 24 hours and northward by 48 hours as the mid-level
ridge centered over Mexico weakens. After that time, a continued
slow northward motion is expected as a weakening Amanda moves
between a re-building ridge to the east and a mid/upper-level
trough approaching from the west. The new NHC track forecast is
close to the previous one and remains along the east side of the
track guidance envelope. At days 4 and 5 the NHC track is close to
the FSU Superensemble.

The operational intensity estimate of Amanda at 00Z was less than
100 kt. Therefore, this makes Amanda the second earliest major
hurricane on record in the eastern North Pacific basin, behind only
Hurricane Bud of 2012.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 11.6N 110.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 11.8N 111.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 12.3N 111.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 12.9N 111.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 13.8N 111.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z 15.0N 111.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  29/0000Z 16.0N 111.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 17.0N 110.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 24-Oct-2014 12:09:28 UTC