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Hurricane AMANDA


800 PM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014

Amanda has continued to rapidly intensify over the past few hours,
with the cloud pattern now featuring a ring of very cold cloud tops
surrounding an eye that has quickly cleared out and warmed in the
last several infrared images. The latest Dvorak satellite estimates
include a T5.5/102 kt from SAB at 00Z, a T6.0/115 kt from a special
02Z TAFB classification, and 92 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT at 0200Z.
Based on a blend of these, the initial intensity has been set to 100
kt, and this could be conservative given the trends seen in the
latest infrared images.

Additional intensification appears likely over the next 12 to 24
hours. The NHC forecast in the short term is above all of the
guidance, but is closest to the FSU Superensemble. By 36 hours,
steady weakening is expected to begin as Amanda encounters
increasing shear ahead of an approaching mid-/upper-level trough and
SSTs cool along the forecast track. The NHC forecast late in the
period is close to the intensity consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 295/04. Amanda is expected to turn
northwestward by 24 hours and northward by 48 hours as the mid-level
ridge centered over Mexico weakens. After that time, a continued
slow northward motion is expected as a weakening Amanda moves
between a re-building ridge to the east and a mid/upper-level
trough approaching from the west. The new NHC track forecast is
close to the previous one and remains along the east side of the
track guidance envelope. At days 4 and 5 the NHC track is close to
the FSU Superensemble.

The operational intensity estimate of Amanda at 00Z was less than
100 kt. Therefore, this makes Amanda the second earliest major
hurricane on record in the eastern North Pacific basin, behind only
Hurricane Bud of 2012.


INIT  25/0300Z 11.6N 110.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 11.8N 111.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 12.3N 111.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 12.9N 111.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 13.8N 111.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z 15.0N 111.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  29/0000Z 16.0N 111.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 17.0N 110.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

Forecaster Brennan


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Dec-2014 12:09:24 UTC