Skip Navigation Links   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Tropical Storm AMANDA


800 AM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014

Convection has been gradually filling in near the center and taking
on a more pronounced banding structure during the past few hours.
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were T2.0/30 kt at 1200 UTC, but
the most recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimates are running around 40 kt.
In addition, recent AMSU intensity estimates yielded 38 kt and 44
kt.  Based on the higher objective numbers, and the overall increase
in convective organization since 1200 UTC, the depression is being
upgraded to Tropical Storm Amanda at this time.  The initial
intensity is set at 35 kt based on a consensus of the subjective and
objective numbers.

Amanda's initial motion is a slow 295/4 kt.  The storm is located to
the southwest of a fairly weak mid-level anticyclone over central
Mexico and to the south of a large deep-layer low over southern
California.  The anticyclone is forecast to weaken during the next
couple of days, while the deep-layer low slides almost due eastward
across the southwestern U.S.  As a result, Amanda is expected to
remain in weak steering flow, and its motion should remain less than
5 kt during the next 5 days.  Amanda is now expected to turn
northward by day 5 due to mid-level ridging redeveloping over
Mexico and a mid-level low forming near 130W.  The GFS has had the
most dramatic shift in track since yesterday and now shows Amanda
turning northward by the end of the forecast period.  The updated
NHC forecast has been shifted a bit to the right of the previous
one now that there is a little more agreement among the models on a
northward turn.

Amanda is expected to remain in a relatively light-shear
environment for the next 3 days or so, and therefore at least
gradual strengthening is anticipated.  Although upwelling of
cold water could be a concern due to Amanda's slow forecast motion,
upper ocean heat content is expected to increase along the
cyclone's path.  Due to these favorable conditions, the SHIPS RI
index still supports a significant potential (about a 50 percent
chance of a 25-kt increase over the next 24 hours) of rapid
intensification.  All of the models have been trending toward a
higher peak intensity, led by the SHIPS and GFDL, which both make
Amanda a hurricane by 48 hours.  The new NHC forecast is not quite
that aggressive, but it does now show Amanda reaching hurricane
strength in about 3 days or so.


INIT  23/1500Z 10.9N 108.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 11.1N 108.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 11.5N 109.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 11.7N 110.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 11.9N 110.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 12.5N 111.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z 13.5N 112.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 15.0N 112.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

Forecaster Berg


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Dec-2014 12:09:24 UTC