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Hurricane GONZALO


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HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
500 AM AST THU OCT 16 2014

The satellite presentation of Gonzalo has improved during the past
few hours, with the eye warming and becoming more distinct since
the last advisory. The 0600 UTC Dvorak estimate from TAFB was
T6.0/115 kt and the 0715 UTC ADT was T6.2/120 kt. The initial
intensity is set to 120 kt for this advisory based on the improving
satellite appearance. The next Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be
investigating Gonzalo around 1200 UTC to provide more information on
the storm's intensity.

Given the recent satellite trends, it seems that Gonzalo has
completed the earlier eyewall replacement cycle. Some additional
fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 12 hours
while Gonzalo remains over SSTs around 29C. Gradual weakening is
forecast through 36 hours while SSTs slowly cool along the
track and the shear begins to increase, and Gonzalo is expected to
remain a dangerous hurricane as it passes near Bermuda on Friday.
After 36 hours, faster weakening is shown as Gonzalo becomes
post-tropical and then gradually decays as an extratropical cyclone
late in the period. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little above
most of the guidance in the short term and then trends toward the
LGEM model while Gonzalo remains a tropical cyclone.

The initial motion estimate is 360/08, as Gonzalo is moving
northward to the west of a subtropical ridge. The model guidance is
in very good agreement on the track forecast scenario, with Gonzalo
expected to recurve ahead of a mid-latitude trough moving off the
east coast of North America. The guidance this cycle has trended a
little to the right through 48 hours and the NHC track has been
adjusted 20-30 miles in that direction. This forecast is now a
little to the left of the multi-model consensus and brings the
center of Gonzalo very close to Bermuda in about 36 hours. Late in
the period, post-tropical Gonzalo is expected to pass south of
Newfoundland and then accelerate northeastward and eastward across
the north Atlantic. At days 3 through 5, the new NHC forecast is
largely an update of the previous one.

The post-tropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 25.3N  68.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 26.8N  68.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 29.2N  67.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 31.9N  65.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  18/0600Z 35.3N  63.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  19/0600Z 45.5N  53.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  20/0600Z 52.0N  33.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  21/0600Z 55.0N  10.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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