Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane ARTHUR


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014

The eye of Arthur remains evident in geostationary satellite imagery
although the cloud tops surrounding the eye have warmed this
morning.  The U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has
measured 94-kt 700 mb flight-level winds in the southeastern
quadrant, but it appears that these winds are not effectively mixing
down to the surface, as peak SFMR surface winds have been 68 kt.
Using a blend of the these data, the initial intensity has been
reduced to 80 kt.  Arthur will be moving over cooler water and the
shear will be significantly increasing through tonight, which should
cause gradual weakening. The hurricane will also interact with a
deep-layer trough and associated cold front that will be moving off
the United States east coast later today.  This should cause the
hurricane to complete transition into an extratropical cyclone in
about 24 hours.  After that time, continued weakening is expected
while the post-tropical cyclone moves over the North Atlantic.

Arthur is moving northeastward with an initial motion of 040/21 kt.
The hurricane should continue moving northeastward during the next
24 to 36 hours ahead of the aforementioned deep-layer trough. The
center of the cyclone is forecast to move over Nova Scotia on
Saturday and track models are in good agreement on this portion of
the forecast.  The track guidance become very divergent after 48
hours, with the ECMWF taking the cyclone northward and northwestward
while the GFS shows an east-northeastward motion near Newfoundland.
Out of continuity for the previous forecasts, the NHC track
continues to follow the eastward scenario shown by the GFS and GFS
ensemble mean, but it now shows a somewhat slower motion by day 5.
It is possible that this portion of the track will need to be
adjusted in future forecasts.

Hourly position updates and two-hourly intermediate advisories have
been discontinued.  Three-hourly intermediate advisories will
continue as long as coastal warnings remain in effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 37.7N  73.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 40.2N  70.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 44.0N  66.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  06/0000Z 46.1N  63.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  06/1200Z 48.0N  59.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  07/1200Z 55.0N  52.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  08/1200Z 59.0N  46.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  09/1200Z 62.0N  35.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 27-Nov-2014 12:09:06 UTC