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Tropical Storm RAYMOND


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
200 PM PDT WED OCT 23 2013
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF RAYMOND HAS BECOME EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF A SHRINKING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO
FALL...AND THE WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 45 KT.  SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE...WITH A LARGE ARC CLOUD IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE PROVIDING EVIDENCE OF DRY AIR CLOSER TO THE
CENTER.  WHILE THE SHEAR SHOULD ABATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...THE GLOBAL MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME OF THAT DRIER AIR WILL
SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME RESTRENGTHENING IN THE LONG-
TERM...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...BUT IS A BIT
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A MORE CONFIDENT 250/8.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE STORM IS STEERED BY A HIGH SOUTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.  IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC IS NOW FORECAST TO DIG A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.  THIS SYNOPTIC CHANGE HAS THE EFFECT OF
DELAYING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM TURNING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL NHC
FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTH FROM THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS COULD STILL BE REQUIRED FOR LATER NHC
FORECASTS. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/2100Z 15.0N 103.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 14.8N 105.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 14.6N 106.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 14.4N 108.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 13.9N 110.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 13.2N 114.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  27/1800Z 13.5N 118.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  28/1800Z 15.0N 120.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:38 UTC