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Hurricane RAYMOND


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
200 AM PDT MON OCT 21 2013
 
RAYMOND CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW A CIRCULAR AND DISTINCT EYE WITH A SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE
PATTERN SURROUNDING THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT
105 KT...FOLLOWING THE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
UW-CIMSS ADT. THIS MAKES RAYMOND A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...THE FIRST
MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC 2013 SEASON. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THIS CYCLONE HAS EXHIBITED AN IMPRESSIVE
PERIOD OF STRENGTHENING...AS IT WAS ONLY A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM
AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
 
THE HURRICANE HAS COME TO A HALT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS ABOUT 100
N MI SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE STEERING CURRENTS HAVE
COLLAPSED WITH A TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF RAYMOND AND A RIDGE
TO THE NORTHWEST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STAY WITHIN THESE
WEAK CURRENTS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THEREFORE...LITTLE MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE
CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF RAYMOND IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME THE
MORE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE...FORCING RAYMOND TO MOVE WESTWARD
OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE LATEST 
GLOBAL MODEL RUNS SHOW A TRACK FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER...KEEPING
THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. IN
FACT...GUIDANCE NO LONGER BRINGS THE HURRICANE INLAND AND IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES THE WARNINGS FOR MEXICO COULD BE ALTERED.
 
RAYMOND COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE TODAY AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM
INTENSITY CHANGES WILL LIKELY BE PRIMARILY CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND INTERNAL DYNAMICS. SLOW WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AS INDICATED BY MUCH OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HURRICANE
AND HOW CLOSE IT GETS TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0900Z 16.0N 102.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 16.3N 102.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 16.5N 102.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 16.5N 102.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 16.4N 102.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  24/0600Z 16.0N 104.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  25/0600Z 15.7N 106.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  26/0600Z 15.5N 110.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:38 UTC