Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane MANUEL


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
800 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013
 
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE
DATA SHOWED A RAGGED EYE. ON THAT BASIS...MANUEL WAS UPGRADED TO A
HURRICANE WITH 65-KNOT WINDS. SINCE THAT TIME...THERE HAS BEEN NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN...AND BECAUSE THE NORTHERN
EYEWALL AND A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION ARE ALREADY INTERACTING
WITH LAND...THE INTENSIFICATION OBSERVED EARLIER HAS ENDED. 
 
MANUEL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT ABOUT 3
KT. THIS SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH SMALL...HAS BROUGHT THE
CENTER CLOSE TO THE COAST...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.  HOWEVER...MANUEL COULD EASILY
DEVIATE A LITTLE BIT TO THE LEFT..AND THE CENTER COULD REMAIN OVER
WATER A LITTLE LONGER. THIS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE RATE OF
WEAKENING. 

TRACK GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AND MODELS ARE IN AS MUCH
DISAGREEMENT AS POSSIBLE. THIS OCCURS...IN GENERAL...WHEN THE
STEERING FLOW IS NOT WELL ESTABLISHED. THE NHC FORECAST WHICH...IN
FACT...IS ALSO HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...HAS OPTED FOR THE SLOW NORTHWARD
TRACK BRINGING A WEAKENING CYCLONE FATHER INLAND. THIS IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0300Z 24.6N 108.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 24.8N 108.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 24H  20/0000Z 25.1N 108.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 36H  20/1200Z 25.5N 108.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  21/0000Z 25.5N 108.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  22/0000Z 25.5N 108.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:32 UTC