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Tropical Storm MANUEL


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013
 
AMBIGUITIES FROM A 1618 UTC ASCAT-B PASS SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF
MANUEL MADE LANDFALL NEAR MANZANILLO EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE PASS
ALSO INDICATED THAT WINDS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CYCLONE ARE NO HIGHER THAN 35 KT. FURTHERMORE...CONVECTIVE CLOUD
TOPS NEAR THE CENTER HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE THAT TIME.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS CONSERVATIVELY BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KT...SINCE
STRONGER WINDS MAY STILL BE PRESENT IN BANDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
WHILE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR. IN FACT...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF MANUEL WILL DISSIPATE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/08.  MANUEL CONTINUES TO BE
STEERED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST.  THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE WHILE THE CIRCULATION
REMAINS INTACT.  THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BEYOND 24 HOURS AND SOME
MODELS...NOTABLY THE HWRF...GFDL...AND ECMWF...SHOW A TRACK TOWARD
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA.  HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO IS BEING
DISCOUNTED FOR NOW SINCE THE VORTEX TRACKER APPLIED TO THESE MODELS
SEEMS TO FOLLOW ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHILE MANUEL
DISSIPATES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 19.2N 104.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 20.3N 105.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  16/1800Z 21.4N 106.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/ZELINSKY
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:32 UTC