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Tropical Storm MANUEL


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013
 
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MANUEL
HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. AN ELONGATED CDO FEATURE HAS FORMED AND CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURES HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND WELL-DEFINED 15 NMI DIAMETER
EYE. INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND A 14/2215Z
CIRA AMSU OVERPASS...AND T3.5 FROM SAB. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE
DATA AND THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE EYE...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT...WHICH COULD BE
CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THAT MANUEL LOOKS STRIKINGLY SIMILAR IN
STRUCTURE TO HURRICANE INGRID LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/05 KT...BASED ON MICROWAVE FIXES.
MANUEL APPEARS TO HAVE WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...BUT MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT
MANUEL HAS BEEN HOLDING A STEADY NORTHWARD COURSE FOR THE PAST 5
HOURS. THAT GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL
OCCURS IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S. WESTWARD OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO...FORCING MANUEL TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION...BUT OTHERWISE
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE.

SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL
OCCURS IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND MANUEL HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF BECOMING
A HURRICANE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LOW SHEAR CONDITIONS...VERY WARM
WATER...MOIST MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...AND THE PRESENCE OF A
WELL-DEFINED EYE. AS A RESULT...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR A PORTION OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. ONCE THE CYCLONE
MOVES INLAND...HOWEVER...RAPID WEAKENING OF THE WIND FIELD SHOULD
OCCUR OWING TO THE HIGH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...THE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY BE SO DISRUPTED THAT
REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE 34-KT WIND AND 12-FT SEAS RADII WERE EXPANDED TO THE NORTHEAST
AND SOUTHEAST BASED ON SHIP REPORTS IN THOSE QUADRANTS.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE
COMBINATION OF MANUEL AND TROPICAL STORM INGRID IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 17.2N 102.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 18.1N 102.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 19.4N 103.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  16/1200Z 20.6N 104.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:32 UTC