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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013
 
SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS ENOUGH OF A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO BE DECLARED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS SET TO 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM
TAFB.  THE DEPRESSION IS IN A RELATIVELY LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER
WARM WATERS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING.  THE MAIN
INHIBITING FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND...AND
ITS INITIAL STRUCTURE WHICH IS NOT TOTALLY FREE OF THE ITCZ.  THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DECAY-SHIPS MODEL.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/3. THE DEPRESSION
SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST SOON DUE TO A
DEEPENING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO. THE BULK OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE
OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS JUST A BIT WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST
OF MEXICO.  THIS WARNING MIGHT HAVE TO BE EXTENDED WESTWARD LATER
TODAY.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/1500Z 15.7N 101.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 16.0N 101.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  14/1200Z 16.8N 101.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  15/0000Z 17.7N 101.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  15/1200Z 18.7N 102.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:32 UTC