Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm FLOSSIE


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062013
200 AM PDT THU JUL 25 2013
 
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS INCREASED IN BOTH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ACCORDINGLY...THE LASTEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE NUDGED
UPWARD TO 2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. IN ADDITION...A RECENT
ASCAT PASS SHOWED RELIABLE WINDS AROUND 35 KT. BASED ON THESE
DATA...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE.
CONTINUED SLOW STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND IN A
LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
WATERS THAT ARE COOLER THAN 26C ON FRIDAY. THESE LESS FAVORABLE
OCEANIC CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH A MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND SOME
INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN BEYOND 36 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES GENERALLY NEAR THE INTENSITY MODEL
CONSENSUS.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT ON
THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS CYCLE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE
GUIDANCE...BUT IT IS NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0900Z 15.5N 123.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 15.9N 126.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 16.4N 129.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 17.3N 132.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 18.0N 135.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  28/0600Z 19.6N 141.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  29/0600Z 20.5N 146.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  30/0600Z 21.0N 151.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:22 UTC