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Hurricane ERICK


ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013
 
...ERICK BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 104.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE
EAST COAST...AND SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H.  A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ERICK SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL
TO...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. 
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD
BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.  ERICK
SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE
SUNDAY.  
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED TODAY...AND ERICK SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SUNDAY.  
 
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE MEXICAN COAST IN THE WARNED AREA TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH AREA LATE SUNDAY.
 
RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN GUERRERO...SOUTHERN MICHOACAN...
COLIMA...AND SOUTHERN JALISCO MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:20 UTC