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Hurricane ERICK


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013
 
THE PROXIMITY OF ERICK TO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO APPEARS TO BE TAKING SOME TOLL ON THE CYCLONE.  RECENT
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT
THE CLOUD PATTERN AND INNER CORE STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE HAS
DEGRADED SOME THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
NUMBERS REMAIN BETWEEN T4.0 AND T4.5...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS MAINTAINED AT 70 KT FOR NOW.  ERICK HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN
INTENSITY SINCE LAND INTERACTION AND GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS
SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND TO COMMENCE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...ERICK WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER WATERS AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE.  THIS
SHOULD HASTEN THE RATE OF WEAKENING...AND ERICK IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  THE UPDATED INTENSITY
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ICON.
 
ERICK IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT.  THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THAT TIME.  AFTER 24 HOURS...
THERE IS AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE 
WITH THE ECMWF...HWRF...AND UKMET MODELS SHOWING A CONTINUED
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  MEANWHILE...THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA.  FOR NOW THE NHC TRACK LIES BETWEEN THESE SCENARIOS AND
IS CLOSE TO...BUT SOUTH OF...THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  

BASED ON THE NEW FORECAST TRACK...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR.
   
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0300Z 18.7N 105.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 19.6N 106.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 20.8N 108.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 21.8N 109.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 22.9N 111.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 24.5N 115.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/0000Z 24.8N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:21 UTC