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Tropical Storm ERICK


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
800 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ERICK IS DOMINATED BY A MASS OF COLD-TOPPED
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. CONVECTIVE BANDING
FEATURES HAVE ALSO INCREASED AND GAINED SLIGHTLY MORE CURVATURE
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. A PAIR OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES WITHIN
INDICATED THAT THE CENTER IS BETTER DEFINED BUT EXPOSED NORTHEAST
OF THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION. A BLEND OF A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB OF T2.5/35 KT...MICROWAVE-ADJUSTED
OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS OF 3.0...AND AN
AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS THE BASIS FOR INCREASING THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE TO 40 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.
 
IT DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE INITIAL MOTION...BUT RECENT FIXES SUGGEST
A MOTION ESTIMATE OF 310/10. ERICK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND TOWARD A WEAKNESS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THE HEADING OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEND WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD IN 2-3 DAYS IN RESPONSE TO THE HEAT RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLIDING EASTWARD.  ALTHOUGH THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MAIN SYNOPTIC
FEATURES...THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT EXACTLY WHEN THE
CHANGE IN TRACK WILL OCCUR.  THIS DETAIL TO THE FORECAST HAS
IMPLICATIONS ON HOW FAR OFFSHORE ERICK WILL TRACK FROM THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO
THE RIGHT AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ECMWF AND THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.
 
MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR PREVAILS OVER THE STORM...
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. THE SHEAR
SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INTENSIFICATION THAT CAN OCCUR DURING
THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...DESPITE FAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS. WHILE THE
UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES MAY WEAKEN AFTER THAT TIME...ERICK WILL HAVE
LIKELY ALREADY REACHED COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THEREFORE...STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
PERIOD...WITH REMNANT LOW STATUS FOREAST BY DAY 5...IF NOT SOONER.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT
TERM AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE LATEST TREND AND IS CLOSE TO THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS...IVCN AND ICON. 
 
GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE
SOUTWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 14.9N 100.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 15.8N 101.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 16.6N 102.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 17.4N 103.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 18.3N 105.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  08/0000Z 19.9N 108.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  09/0000Z 21.2N 112.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  10/0000Z 22.0N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:21 UTC