Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane COSME


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013
800 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT COSME HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A WELL-DEFINED
CONVECTIVE BAND PATTERN AND OCCASIONAL APPEARANCES OF AN EYE. 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 65 KT.
IN ADDITION...A RECENT AMSU OVERPASS SHOWED AN ALMOST-CLOSED
EYEWALL WITH AN ACCOMPANYING INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 67 KT.  BASED ON
ALL OF THE ABOVE...COSME IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE.

COSME HAS JOGGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY WITH
A 12-HOUR MOTION OF 305/16.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  COSME IS EXPECTED TO TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WESTWARD-EXPANDING MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES.  AFTER THAT TIME...COSME SHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY
WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW AS IT WEAKENS.  THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS PARALLEL TO...BUT NORTH OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK
BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION.  THE NEW TRACK LIES NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHICH IS MORE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED THAN NORMAL.

COSME IS IN A LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK HAS IT REACHING 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
ABOUT 12 HOURS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS SHOWS SOME
STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS...FOLLWED BY STEADY
WEAKENING OVER DECREASING SSTS.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 24-36 HOURS...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT
72 HOURS...AND SUBSEQUENTLY DECAY INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 96
HOURS.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
 
THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE PROVIDED BY
THE TAFB IS THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL
FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 17.7N 110.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 18.2N 112.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 18.9N 114.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 19.6N 117.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 20.4N 119.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 21.5N 125.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  29/1200Z 21.5N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/1200Z 21.5N 134.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:16 UTC