ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013 800 AM PDT THU MAY 30 2013 FINDING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN A REAL CHALLENGE THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF ROTATION THAT IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM STANDARD AND AUTOMATED MEXICAN WEATHER STATIONS. IN FACT...THERE IS SOME DOUBT THAT A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER EVEN EXISTS. HOWEVER...WE THINK THE MOST PRUDENT ACTION AT THIS TIME IS TO MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION UNTIL ADDITIONAL VISIBLE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA BECOME AVAILABLE. THE CURRENT ADVISORY POSITION IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE WIND DATA. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 310/3. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER WILL NOT MOVE VERY FAR INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SINCE THE SURFACE CENTER HAS BECOME VERY DISRUPTED AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE FAR FROM LAND...THE FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING IN A DAY OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE SHOULD DISSIPATE SOON...HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A SERIOUS CONCERN. DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BARBARA IS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND A HEIGHTENED RISK OF DANGEROUS FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS REGION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 18.5N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 31/0000Z 18.7N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 31/1200Z 18.8N 96.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:15 UTC