Tropical Depression BARBARA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022013
800 AM PDT THU MAY 30 2013
 
FINDING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN A REAL
CHALLENGE THIS MORNING.  THE CENTER OF ROTATION THAT IS EVIDENT ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH SURFACE WIND
OBSERVATIONS FROM STANDARD AND AUTOMATED MEXICAN WEATHER STATIONS. 
IN FACT...THERE IS SOME DOUBT THAT A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER
EVEN EXISTS.  HOWEVER...WE THINK THE MOST PRUDENT ACTION AT THIS
TIME IS TO MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION UNTIL ADDITIONAL
VISIBLE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA BECOME AVAILABLE.  THE CURRENT
ADVISORY POSITION IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE WIND
DATA.    

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 310/3.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER WILL NOT MOVE VERY FAR INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO.  SINCE THE SURFACE CENTER HAS BECOME VERY DISRUPTED
AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE FAR FROM LAND...THE FORECAST SHOWS THE
SYSTEM DISSIPATING IN A DAY OR SO.

ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE SHOULD DISSIPATE SOON...HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A
SERIOUS CONCERN.   DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF BARBARA IS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF DANGEROUS FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES WILL CONTINUE
OVER THIS REGION. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 18.5N  95.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 12H  31/0000Z 18.7N  95.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  31/1200Z 18.8N  96.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA
 
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