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Tropical Storm BARBARA


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022013
200 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO INDICATE
THAT THE STRUCTURE OF BARBARA HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT.  THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN THE MIDDLE OF A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...COMPRISED OF COLD-TOPPED DEEP CONVECTION.
BANDING HAS INCREASED...WITH THE MOST PROMINENT BAND WRAPPING
ALMOST ENTIRELY AROUND THE CIRCULATION.  MORE RECENTLY...A PARTIAL
EYEWALL HAS BEEN NOTED IN RADAR IMAGERY...WITH THE EYEWALL BECOMING
INCREASINGLY BETTER DEFINED.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE 3.0 FROM TAFB
AND 3.5 FROM SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS THEREFORE BEEN
RAISED TO 50 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035/04. BARBARA HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SHOULD DRAW THE CYCLONE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE TO THE
COAST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. AFTER
CROSSING THE COAST...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR WEST
OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BEFORE DISSIPATING...WITH AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF THE REMNANTS ENTERING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO
THE GFS AND MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
SHEAR ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS MODEL SHOW ONLY LIGHT SHEAR
OVER BARBARA AS IT MOVES SLOWLY OVER VERY WARM SSTS AROUND 30C. 
THESE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  IN ADDITION...AN EARLIER SSMI/S PASS
SHOWED A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL RING OF CONVECTION...POSSIBLY A HARBINGER
OF A RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE ABOUT TO OCCUR. THE LACK OF TIME
OVER WATER IS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS INCREASED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...AND IS
CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AND WELL AS THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS AIDS.
 
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
BARBARA COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  FOR THIS
REASON...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
A PORTION OF THE COAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
 
DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM...AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN IN AND NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 14.8N  95.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 15.7N  95.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 17.0N  94.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  30/1800Z 18.0N  94.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:15 UTC