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Post-Tropical Cyclone ANDREA


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012013
1100 PM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS SOMEWHAT
ELONGATED FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE CYCLONE BEING EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE. 
HOWEVER OUR BEST CENTER LOCATION ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE
FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED TO NEAR 30 KT.  NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL
ACCELERATION IS LIKELY AND THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN
EASTWARD IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IN A DAY OR TWO.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ALSO
CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...WHICH REMAIN IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.   

ALTHOUGH THE AVAILABLE WIND OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE COAST HAVE
DROPPED BELOW GALE FORCE...STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY STILL
OCCURRING FARTHER OFFSHORE.  GIVEN THE 30-KT FORWARD MOTION...
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS PROBABLY STILL CLOSE TO 40 KT. 
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE BECOMING ABSORBED OR MERGING WITH
ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITHIN 72
HOURS.
 
THE THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND LOCALIZED COASTAL
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY ACROSS NEW JERSEY AND NEW ENGLAND. 
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
COMMUNICATED THROUGH LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING
PRODUCTS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0300Z 38.5N  75.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  08/1200Z 41.7N  70.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  09/0000Z 45.4N  63.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  09/1200Z 46.8N  55.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  10/0000Z 47.0N  47.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  11/0000Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:28:49 UTC