Post-Tropical Cyclone ANDREA

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POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012013
500 PM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT ANDREA IS
NO LONGER TROPICAL.  DEEP CONVECTION OVER NORTH CAROLINA
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED MORE WITH A FRONTAL ZONE THAN THE
CYCLONE ITSELF...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEGUN TO LOSE
DEFINITION.  HOWEVER...EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE IS BEING DECLARED
POST-TROPICAL...ADVISORIES FROM NHC WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM
NO LONGER POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.
 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 1448 UTC. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ANDREA CHANGING LITTLE IN STRENGTH AS IT
MOVES UP THE U.S. EAST COAST...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING ANDREA BEING STRETCHED OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN 24-48
HOURS...WITH A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMING THE MORE
DOMINANT SYSTEM AND ABSORBING ANDREA BY 72 HOURS EAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/24 KT.  ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY
EMBEDDED IN STRONG MID-LATITUDE FLOW.  THE SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK
GUIDANCE REMAINS RELATIVELY SMALL...AND THE UPDATED NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT EVEN THOUGH ANDREA HAS BECOME
POST-TROPICAL...THE THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND.  HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FROM
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
COMMUNICATED THROUGH LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING
PRODUCTS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/2100Z 36.1N  77.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  08/0600Z 39.3N  74.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  08/1800Z 43.4N  67.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  09/0600Z 46.0N  60.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  09/1800Z 46.9N  51.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  10/1800Z...ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/BEVEN
 
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