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Hurricane PAUL


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
200 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2012
 
PAUL HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING TODAY.  THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND NOW CONSISTS OF A
SYMMETRIC AND COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE EYE HAS ALSO
WARMED CONSIDERABLY WHILE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE ABRUPTLY INCREASED
TO 5.5 AND LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT CI VALUES ARE 6.1. BASED ON THESE
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 105
KT...MAKING PAUL THE FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/11. PAUL SHOULD BE STEERED
CYCLONICALLY AROUND A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO CUT OFF TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND DRIFT
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD CARRY PAUL
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS...
WHICH SHOULD BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  AFTER THAT...THE TRACK IS
EXPECTED TO BEND NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL
DISSIPATION. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO...IT CONTINUES ITS TREND OF SHIFTING EASTWARD.  THE
NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AGAIN SHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION AND IS
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS.
 
THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION EPISODE THAT PAUL HAS UNDERGONE TODAY
SHOULD SOON COME TO A CLOSE.  SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST OF PAUL IS FORECAST TO
MARKEDLY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE CYCLONE SLOWLY DECREASE.  GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS...BUT THE RATE OF
WEAKENING SHOULD INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AFTER 36 HOURS ONCE THE
SHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVELY HIGH.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
INCREASED AGAIN IN THE SHORT TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS BUT
IS NEARLY UNCHANGED AFTER 36 HOURS...IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.
 
THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK...ALONG WITH THE FORECAST WIND
RADII...REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WARNING FOR A PORTION
OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND AN EXTENSION OF
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNING. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 18.4N 114.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 20.3N 113.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 23.0N 112.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 25.1N 112.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 26.6N 113.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  18/1800Z 29.0N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:43 UTC