Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane PAUL


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
200 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012
 
PAUL IS ON A STRENGTHENING TREND. THE CYCLONE IS PRODUCING CLOUD
TOPS AS COLD AS -85C NEAR THE CENTER WITH BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE
THAT INNER CORE OF PAUL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH THE
EYEWALL WIDENING ON THE WEST SIDE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE
T4.0/65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND ON THIS BASIS THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 65 KT...MAKING PAUL A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS AS THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT WHILE THE
HURRICANE IS OVER 26C TO 28C WATERS. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND THAT
COMBINED WITH STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATER SHOULD CAUSE PAUL TO LOSE
STRENGTH. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT IN THE FLOW BETWEEN
A RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW A FEW HUNDRED N
MI WEST OF THE BAJA PENNISULA. THIS MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
CAUSING PAUL TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...THE WEAKENING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. DISSIPATION IS NOW SHOWN BY DAY 4...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF
THE MODELS. THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST THIS CYCLE...AND
THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ABOUT 30 N MI IN THAT DIRECTION.
 
THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK AS TYPICAL NHC FORECAST ERRORS ARE ABOUT 80 N MI AT 48 HOURS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0900Z 16.2N 114.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 18.0N 114.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 20.2N 113.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 22.8N 113.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 24.8N 113.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 27.5N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:43 UTC