ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012 KRISTY HAD BEEN MAINTAINING A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. DVORAK AND ADT CI NUMBERS SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT...AND THIS SEEMS JUSTIFIED GIVEN THE LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE STRONGER NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM. THE SPIN-DOWN OF THE STORM CIRCULATION SHOULD ACCELERATE NOW THAT KRISTY HAS REACHED 23C WATERS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH KRISTY EXPECTED TO BE A CONVECTION-FREE REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF KRISTY MAY HAVE WOBBLED A BIT TO THE LEFT SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...BUT THE LONGER-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 315/08. AS THE CYCLONE DECOUPLES ON SUNDAY...A SHIFT IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD CAUSE TRACK TO BEND NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE...EXCEPT TO ADJUST THE FORECAST TO THE EAST AFTER 24 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TREND IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 24.1N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 24.9N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 25.8N 118.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/1800Z 26.6N 118.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0600Z 27.0N 118.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:33 UTC