Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm KRISTY


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012
 
KRISTY HAD BEEN MAINTAINING A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  DVORAK AND
ADT CI NUMBERS SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT...AND
THIS SEEMS JUSTIFIED GIVEN THE LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE
STRONGER NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM.  THE SPIN-DOWN OF THE
STORM CIRCULATION SHOULD ACCELERATE NOW THAT KRISTY HAS REACHED 23C
WATERS.  NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
KRISTY EXPECTED TO BE A CONVECTION-FREE REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24
HOURS.
 
THE CENTER OF KRISTY MAY HAVE WOBBLED A BIT TO THE LEFT SINCE THE
LAST ADVISORY...BUT THE LONGER-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS
315/08. AS THE CYCLONE DECOUPLES ON SUNDAY...A SHIFT IN THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD CAUSE TRACK
TO BEND NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE...EXCEPT TO ADJUST THE
FORECAST TO THE EAST AFTER 24 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TREND IN
THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0900Z 24.1N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 24.9N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 25.8N 118.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/1800Z 26.6N 118.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/0600Z 27.0N 118.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:33 UTC