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Post-Tropical Cyclone JOHN


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102012
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 04 2012
 
BASED ON THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM MORE THAN 12 HOURS...JOHN
HAS BEEN DECLARED A REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE LAST ADVISORY ON
THIS SYSTEM.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT AND IS BASED
ON A RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION WELL EAST OF THE CENTER.  A GRADUAL
SPINDOWN IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.  THE REMNANT LOW HAS BEEN
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT.  A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD 
THE NORTH BEFORE DISSIPATION OCCURS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  THE NEW
TRACK FORCAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND BETWEEN THE
LATEST GFS AND ECWMF MODELS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM PLEASE SEE HIGH 
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER 
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 24.3N 117.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  05/0600Z 25.2N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  05/1800Z 26.1N 120.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/0600Z 27.0N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/1800Z 27.8N 121.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:29 UTC