ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2012 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ILEANA HAS DETERIORATED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH AN OVERALL COOLING OF CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER AND SIGNS THAT DRY AIR IS NOW WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS ILEANA MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AND IS NOW A LITTLE BELOW THE INTENSITY MODEL CONESNUS. ILEANA SHOULD BECOME A REMANT LOW BY 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY 5 DAY IF NOT A LITTLE SOONER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/7. ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOON AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. A WESTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED BY 36 HOURS AS THE WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A BIT SOUTHWARD AGAIN THIS CYCLE AND SO HAS THE NHC FORECAST...WHICH WAS ADJUSTED TOWARD THE NEW TVCE CONSENSUS. THE NEW FORECAST IS A BIT FASTER AND SHOWS A SOUTHWARD TURN BY DAY 5...FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 22.4N 116.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 22.8N 117.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 23.3N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 23.6N 120.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 23.8N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/1800Z 24.0N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/1800Z 24.0N 128.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/1800Z 23.5N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:28 UTC