Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm ILEANA


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2012

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ILEANA HAS DETERIORATED OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...WITH AN OVERALL COOLING OF CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER
AND SIGNS THAT DRY AIR IS NOW WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE CIRCULATION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK
FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. STEADY WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AS ILEANA MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AND IS NOW A LITTLE BELOW THE INTENSITY
MODEL CONESNUS. ILEANA SHOULD BECOME A REMANT LOW BY 48 HOURS AND
DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY 5 DAY IF NOT A LITTLE SOONER. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/7. ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO TURN
MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOON AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. A WESTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED BY 36 HOURS AS
THE WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A BIT SOUTHWARD
AGAIN THIS CYCLE AND SO HAS THE NHC FORECAST...WHICH WAS ADJUSTED
TOWARD THE NEW TVCE CONSENSUS. THE NEW FORECAST IS A BIT FASTER AND
SHOWS A SOUTHWARD TURN BY DAY 5...FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/2100Z 22.4N 116.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 22.8N 117.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 23.3N 118.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 23.6N 120.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 23.8N 122.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  03/1800Z 24.0N 125.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  04/1800Z 24.0N 128.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  05/1800Z 23.5N 132.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:28 UTC