ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 14 2012 AFTER AN EARLY MORNING BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE WANE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE HECTOR IS BARELY HANGING ON TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HECTOR FROM STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY 96-120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE TREND IN THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/4. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HECTOR HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST OR EVEN A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AS THE CONVECTION WAXES AND WANES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...A SLOW ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM DECOUPLES COMPLETELY FROM ANY CONVECTION. AFTER THAT OCCURS... HECTOR WILL BE A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 17.6N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 17.9N 115.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 18.4N 116.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 18.9N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 19.6N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 20.5N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1800Z 21.1N 120.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:24 UTC