Tropical Storm HECTOR
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TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 14 2012
AFTER AN EARLY MORNING BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE WANE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE HECTOR IS BARELY HANGING ON
TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HECTOR FROM STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SHEAR
AND COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE STEADY
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY 96-120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE TREND
IN THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/4. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT HECTOR HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST OR EVEN A
LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AS THE CONVECTION
WAXES AND WANES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...A SLOW ERRATIC MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM
DECOUPLES COMPLETELY FROM ANY CONVECTION. AFTER THAT OCCURS...
HECTOR WILL BE A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE STEERED
WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND TVCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 17.6N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 17.9N 115.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 18.4N 116.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 18.9N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 19.6N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 20.5N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/1800Z 21.1N 120.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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