ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072012 200 PM PDT THU AUG 09 2012 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF GILMA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEGRADE. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION NO LONGER COMPLETELY SURROUNDS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS ARE ALSO SLOWLY COMING DOWN AND SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 60 KT. GILMA IS MOVING TOWARDS INCREASINGLY COLDER WATER AND APPEARS TO BE INGESTING MORE STABLE AIR TO ITS WEST...SO CONTINUED WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON A STEADY DOWNWARD TREND IN INTENSITY...AND GILMA COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS. GILMA HAS TURNED A BIT TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWED DOWN WITH A MOTION OF 310/5 KT. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE BROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO. THESE FEATURES SHOULD STEER GILMA GENERALLY NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 96 HOURS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT FOR THIS CYCLE... AND THE NEW NHC TRACK IS NUDGED EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS TV15. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 17.2N 119.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 17.7N 119.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 18.4N 119.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 19.2N 120.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 19.9N 120.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 20.5N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:23 UTC