Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm GILMA


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012
200 PM PDT THU AUG 09 2012
 
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF GILMA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEGRADE. 
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION NO LONGER
COMPLETELY SURROUNDS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS
ARE ALSO SLOWLY COMING DOWN AND SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 60 KT. 
GILMA IS MOVING TOWARDS INCREASINGLY COLDER WATER AND APPEARS TO BE
INGESTING MORE STABLE AIR TO ITS WEST...SO CONTINUED WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED.  THE GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON A STEADY
DOWNWARD TREND IN INTENSITY...AND GILMA COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW
BY 72 HOURS.

GILMA HAS TURNED A BIT TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWED DOWN WITH A MOTION OF
310/5 KT.  OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE
BROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST OF
MEXICO.  THESE FEATURES SHOULD STEER GILMA GENERALLY NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 96 HOURS.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT FOR THIS CYCLE...
AND THE NEW NHC TRACK IS NUDGED EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS TV15.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 17.2N 119.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 17.7N 119.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 18.4N 119.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 19.2N 120.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 19.9N 120.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 20.5N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:23 UTC