ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012 MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EMILIA IS GONE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL CELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF ADDITIONAL CELLS DEVELOP INTERMITTENTLY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENS. SINCE EMILIA WAS A STRONG HURRICANE...IT IS ASSUMED THAT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE WINDS TO SPIN DOWN...AND THE INTENSITY IS STILL ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED...AND EMILIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...OR EARLIER. EMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. NO IMPORTANT CHANGES IN TRACK OR FORWARD SPEED ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS A WEAKENING CYCLONE OR A REMNANT LOW PROGRESSING WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 15.6N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 15.7N 127.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 16.0N 130.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 16.2N 133.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 16.3N 136.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1200Z 16.5N 141.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1200Z 16.5N 147.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1200Z 16.5N 152.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:18 UTC