Tropical Storm EMILIA
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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012
MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EMILIA IS GONE...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A SMALL CELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...I WILL NOT
BE SURPRISED IF ADDITIONAL CELLS DEVELOP INTERMITTENTLY DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENS. SINCE EMILIA WAS A
STRONG HURRICANE...IT IS ASSUMED THAT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
WINDS TO SPIN DOWN...AND THE INTENSITY IS STILL ESTIMATED TO BE 55
KNOTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED...AND EMILIA IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...OR EARLIER.
EMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS STEERED
BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. NO IMPORTANT CHANGES IN TRACK OR FORWARD
SPEED ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS A WEAKENING CYCLONE OR A
REMNANT LOW PROGRESSING WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/1500Z 15.6N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 15.7N 127.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 16.0N 130.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 16.2N 133.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 16.3N 136.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/1200Z 16.5N 141.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1200Z 16.5N 147.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1200Z 16.5N 152.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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