ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 06 2012 THE INFRARED PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS IMPROVED A LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS A RAGGED CDO FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION. HOWEVER...RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY STILL SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION OF DANIEL IS TILTED SOUTHWESTWARD WITH HEIGHT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 1200Z TAFB AND SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE DANIEL CROSSES THE 26C ISOTHERM. THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS THINKING AND IS ABOVE MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH 36 HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN CONSENSUS FROM 48 HOURS ONWARD...AND SHOWS DANIEL BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...SHOWING DANIEL TURNING WESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATER IN THE PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 14.8N 114.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 15.1N 116.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 15.2N 118.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 15.4N 120.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 15.6N 123.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 16.3N 128.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 16.5N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 16.5N 141.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:14 UTC