Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm DANIEL


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 06 2012
 
THE INFRARED PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS IMPROVED A LITTLE OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS AS A RAGGED CDO FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF
THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION. HOWEVER...RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
STILL SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION OF DANIEL IS TILTED
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH HEIGHT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 1200Z TAFB AND SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE DANIEL CROSSES THE 26C ISOTHERM. THE NHC
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS THINKING AND IS ABOVE MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE THROUGH 36 HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME AS
THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN CONSENSUS FROM
48 HOURS ONWARD...AND SHOWS DANIEL BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.
THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...SHOWING
DANIEL TURNING WESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATER IN
THE PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND CLOSE TO THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/1500Z 14.8N 114.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 15.1N 116.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 15.2N 118.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 15.4N 120.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 15.6N 123.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 16.3N 128.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  10/1200Z 16.5N 134.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 16.5N 141.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:14 UTC