Tropical Storm DANIEL
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TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 06 2012
THE INFRARED PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS IMPROVED A LITTLE OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS AS A RAGGED CDO FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF
THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION. HOWEVER...RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
STILL SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION OF DANIEL IS TILTED
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH HEIGHT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 1200Z TAFB AND SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE DANIEL CROSSES THE 26C ISOTHERM. THE NHC
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS THINKING AND IS ABOVE MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE THROUGH 36 HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME AS
THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN CONSENSUS FROM
48 HOURS ONWARD...AND SHOWS DANIEL BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.
THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...SHOWING
DANIEL TURNING WESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATER IN
THE PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND CLOSE TO THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 14.8N 114.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 15.1N 116.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 15.2N 118.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 15.4N 120.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 15.6N 123.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 16.3N 128.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 16.5N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 16.5N 141.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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