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Hurricane CARLOTTA


ZCZC MIATCPEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOTTA ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
800 PM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012
 
...CARLOTTA MAKING LANDFALL NEAR PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO WITH
ESTIMATED 90-MPH WINDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 97.2W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS
EAST OF SALINA CRUZ. THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM WEST OF PUNTA
MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH. THE HURRICANE WATCH WEST OF ACAPULCO
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO PUNTA MALDONADO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS NEAR
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.2 WEST. CARLOTTA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H.  THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA
WILL BE MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK COULD KEEP THE
CENTER OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER OR ALONG THE COAST. 
 
SINCE CARLOTTA IS INTERACTING WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CARLOTTA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM. A WEATHER STATION IN THE TOWN OF PLUMA HIDALGO
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 76 MPH...123 KM/H. 
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE AND SPREAD WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW...MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
RAINFALL...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...75 TO 125 MM...THROUGH MONDAY
OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS...GUERRERO...AND NORTHERN
OAXACA...WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES...150 TO 250 MM...EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHERN OAXACA.  ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 15
INCHES...300 TO 375 MM MM...ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE OAXACA
COAST...WITH 6 TO 12 INCHES...150 TO 300 MM ALONG THE GUERRERO
COAST.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:11 UTC