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Hurricane SANDY


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012
500 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012
 
THE MOST RECENT AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MISSION DID NOT
FIND WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE NEAR THE CENTER OF SANDY.
HOWEVER...EARLIER DROPSONDE DATA INDICATED THAT WINDS TO HURRICANE
STRENGTH WERE OCCURRING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER...BEYOND THE RADIAL LEGS COVERED BY THIS AIRCRAFT.  ALTHOUGH
IT COULD BE GENEROUS...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  AIRCRAFT AND DROPSONDE DATA LATER TODAY SHOULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE INTENSITY OF SANDY.  THE VERTICAL
SHEAR HAS DECREASED AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A SMALL
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  THEREFORE...THERE IS STILL
SOME SHORT-TERM POTENTIAL FOR SANDY TO INTENSIFY AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE GULF STREAM
TODAY.  IN THE 24 TO 48 HOUR TIME FRAME...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE WHICH IS UNDOUBTEDLY DUE TO
BAROCLINIC PROCESSES...AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH
COLDER WATERS BY THAT TIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE
TRANSFORMATION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS...BUT IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS HAS LITTLE OR NO BEARING ON THE OVERALL
IMPACTS OF THIS DANGEROUS WEATHER SYSTEM.  AFTER LANDFALL...THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...SHOW RAPID
WEAKENING.
 
THE LAST FIX FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MOTION HAS REMAINED
NEARLY THE SAME...OR 040/12.  THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FOR THIS ADVISORY.  AS SANDY INTERACTS
WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY MAXIMUM APPROACHING THE
U.S. EAST COAST WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IT SHOULD TURN
NORTHWARD.  AFTERWARDS...SANDY SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND A
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA IN THE
VICINITY OF NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE 0000 UTC RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THIS GUIDANCE AND THE LATEST
FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE
CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES
POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0900Z 31.9N  73.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 33.2N  71.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 35.2N  70.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 37.7N  71.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  30/0600Z 39.5N  73.7W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  31/0600Z 40.5N  77.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  01/0600Z 44.0N  76.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  02/0600Z 47.5N  75.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:56 UTC