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Tropical Storm NADINE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  82
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 02 2012
 
NADINE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING SHEARED APART AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PROTECTING IT MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST...EXPOSING THE CYCLONE TO INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE
T-NUMBERS AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. WIND RADII WERE
ADJUSTED INWARD SLIGHTLY BASED ON A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AT 02/2317
UTC...WHICH CAUGHT THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF NADINE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/08 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NADINE GRADUALLY TURNING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
OR WESTERN AZORES IN ABOUT 30 HOURS. IN THE 36- TO 72-HOUR TIME
FRAME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AS IT IS STEERED
AROUND A MUCH LARGER DEEP-LAYER TROUGH/LOW CURRENTLY EAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE
MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME GRADUAL
WEAKENING. AS NADINE APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE
AZORES ISLANDS...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SHARPLY DECREASE TO
LESS THAN 20C. THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS WOULD
NORMALLY PRODUCE RAPID WEAKENING AND/OR DISSIPATION OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. IN THIS CASE...HOWEVER...THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TROPOSPHERE
IS ALSO FORECAST TO COOL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME MODERATE CONVECTION AND ALLOW NADINE TO
HANG ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AZORES.
BY 48 HOURS...HOSTILE VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AMPLIFYING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH/LOW SHOULD BRING ABOUT A RAPID DEMISE
OF NADINE BY DAY 3...WITH ITS REMNANTS BEING ABSORBED INTO A VERY
LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY DAY 4.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0300Z 34.4N  35.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 35.2N  33.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 37.2N  30.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...SOUTHWEST OF AZORES
 36H  04/1200Z 40.8N  28.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...NORTH OF AZORES
 48H  05/0000Z 44.6N  26.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  06/0000Z 48.0N  28.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:45 UTC