Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane NADINE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  64
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 28 2012

MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT NADINE HAS DEVELOPED AN
EYE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THIS FEATURE ALSO
APPEARING IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 65 KT...WHILE RECENT AMSU-BASED
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AND CIRA HAVE BEEN IN THE 60-75 KT
RANGE.  BASED ON THESE DATA...NADINE HAS REGAINED HURRICANE STATUS
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 65 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/7.  FOR THE NEXT 48 HR OR SO NADINE
SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR 32N48W.  THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST NADINE TO MERGE OR
MOVE UNDER THIS LOW IN ABOUT 72 HR...WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY
IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS JUST SOUTH OF THE MAIN BRANCH
OF THE WESTERLIES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
48 HR...BUT DIVERGES THERAFTER.  THE NOGAPS AND THE CANADIAN MODELS
SHOW A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION BY 120 HR.  THE REST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS SHOW SOME TYPE OF EASTWARD MOTION BY THAT TIME...WITH THE
ECMWF AND UKMET NOW SUPPORTING THIS SCENARIO.  THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...SHOWING A NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW NORTHWARD
AND EASTWARD DRIFT.  THE NEW TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS
CONSENSUS MODELS.

THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SHEAR NADINE WILL ENCOUNTER
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR...AS SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE HURRICANE THAT COULD
SHIELD IT FROM THE WORST OF THE FORECAST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE
SHIPS...LGEM...AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS SHOW MODEST
STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
THIS SCENARIO.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN 24 HR OR SO...WHICH SHOULD STOP INTENSIFICATION. 
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASING NORTHERLY SHEAR AND
EVEN COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEAD TO A STEADY
WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON A
RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/1500Z 29.6N  34.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 30.5N  35.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 32.3N  36.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 34.2N  36.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 35.7N  37.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z 36.5N  37.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  02/1200Z 36.5N  37.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  03/1200Z 36.5N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:44 UTC