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Tropical Storm NADINE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
500 PM AST MON SEP 17 2012
 
A SIGNIFICANT FLARE UP OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
A SATELLITE INTENSITY CLASSIFICATION OF T3.0/45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB
AND SAB. HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND DEVELOP
CLOSER TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SINCE THAT TIME...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS ONLY BEEN DECREASED TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL-ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS...
EXCEPT TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE IT IS SIGNIFICANTLY RESTRICTED.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/10 KT. THE LATEST 12Z NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON NADINE GRADUALLY TURNING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTH WITH A CONTINUED REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THROUGH DAY 3.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON NADINE NOT
MOVING AS FAR NORTH AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED IN THE LATTER FORECAST
PERIODS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE ITS INTERACTION WITH A
DEEP-LAYER LOW FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE HIGH LATITUDES
ON DAYS 3-5. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AT 96- AND
120-HOURS HAS BEEN SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACKS. HOWEVER...THE
NHC ADVISORY TRACK REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE GFS...
ECMWF...AND THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODELS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IS
THE EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF INTERACTION EXPECTED TO OCCUR
BETWEEN NADINE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED EXTRATROPICAL LOW. 

NADINE MAY BE ABLE TO FIGHT OFF THE INTRUSIONS OF DRIER AND STABLE
AIR...AND COOLER SSTS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO DUE TO ITS LARGE
CIRCULATION. BY DAY 3... HOWEVER...SSTS LESS THAN 24C ALONG WITH
INCREASING SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH THE DEEP-LAYER EXTRATROPICAL
LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AZORES SHOULD CAUSE NADINE TO
GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. BY DAY 5
AS NADINE MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER WARMER SSTS...THE CYCLONE COULD
TRANSITION BACK INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE EXACT
STATUS OF NADINE AFTER DAY 3...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE
IF ANY EFFECT ON ITS INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE
CONSENSUS MODELS IV15 AND ICON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/2100Z 33.5N  34.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 34.3N  33.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 35.4N  32.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 36.5N  32.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 37.1N  31.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 37.0N  30.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  21/1800Z 35.5N  29.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  22/1800Z 33.0N  30.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:44 UTC