Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm NADINE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 16 2012
 
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF NADINE HAS DEGRADED SINCE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LESS CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A MORE
ASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE.  RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO SHOW THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE BAND.  AS A RESULT...DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 60 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF 
THE LATEST AND T- AND CI-NUMBERS.  ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE TO STRONG OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
THE SHEAR ALONG WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS SHOULD INDUCE SOME
WEAKENING...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  THE LACK OF WEAKENING COULD BE DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF
NADINE AND A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE CYCLONE FROM THE
WEST.  THE NHC FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE AND
ONLY PREDICTS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. 
 
MICROWAVE DATA DURING THE PAST 6-12 HOURS SUGGESTS THAT NADINE
IS BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN AND HAS TURNED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.  THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 075/16 KT.  AN ADDITIONAL REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD TO THE
NORTH OF NADINE AND A CUT-OFF LOW FORMS TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AFTER THAT TIME...ANOTHER MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC.  AS THIS OCCURS...THE TRACK GUIDANCE BECOME QUITE
DIVERGENT AS THEY DEPICT VARYING INTERACTIONS OF NADINE AND THE
UPPER-LOW.  GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...THE NHC
FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 4 AND 5. 

ALTHOUGH NADINE HAS RECENTLY TAKEN ON A LESS TROPICAL APPEARANCE IN
SATELLITE DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THIS TROUGH WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE NADINE TO TRANSITION
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  INSTEAD...THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THAT AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE CUT-OFF
LOW IN A FEW DAYS...NADINE WILL THEN TRANSITION INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THIS TRANSFORMATION IS FORECAST TO 
BE COMPLETE IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0300Z 31.4N  38.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 32.1N  35.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 33.2N  33.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 34.4N  32.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 35.6N  32.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  20/0000Z 37.0N  31.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  21/0000Z 37.5N  29.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  22/0000Z 37.5N  28.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:44 UTC