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Hurricane NADINE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 14 2012

NADINE HAS GOTTEN BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH
THE CORE CONVECTION BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWING THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 65 KT
FROM TAFB TO 77 KT FROM SAB AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT. GIVEN THAT SOME
TILT STILL APPEARS TO EXIST IN THE CIRCULATION...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE BASED ON THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE FOR THIS
ADVISORY. SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KT IS AFFECTING
NADINE...AND THIS MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GIVEN THIS MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT...ONLY
MINIMAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. LATE IN THE
PERIOD...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...WHICH IN
COMBINATION WITH EVEN STRONGER SHEAR SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUAL
WEAKENING. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DECAY
SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS AND TRENDS TOWARD THE LGEM BY DAY 5. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 025/12...AS NADINE IS MOVING AROUND
THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE WILL
ENTER THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WITHIN 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN A QUICK EASTWARD MOTION UNTIL ABOUT DAY 3. A SLOWER
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...WHILE
THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS AT THIS TIME.
THE NHC FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT
WITH A FASTER FORWARD SPEED THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS
VERY CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS...ECMWF...UKMET...AND THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

NADINE MARKS THE THIRD-EARLIEST FORMATION OF AN EIGHTH HURRICANE FOR
THE SEASON IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...BEHIND 1893 AND 2005.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 30.0N  52.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 30.8N  51.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 31.2N  48.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 31.1N  45.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 31.2N  42.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 33.0N  36.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  19/0000Z 35.5N  33.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 37.5N  31.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:44 UTC