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Tropical Storm NADINE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
1100 PM AST WED SEP 12 2012
 
THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND CONVECTIVE BANDING NOW WRAPS ALMOST COMPLETELY AROUND
THE CENTER. THE CDO HAS ALSO INCREASED IN SIZE AND TOPS HAVE COOLED
BELOW -80C NEAR THE CENTER...AND IN MOST OF THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE A CONSENSUS T3.5/55 KT AT 00Z...
BUT THE BANDING HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE SINCE THEN. THE LATEST
UW-CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS T3.9/63 KT. HOWEVER...WITH NO
RECENT MICROWAVE DATA THAT WOULD BE USEFUL IN DETERMINING IF NADINE
HAS AN EYE UNDERNEATH THE COLD CLOUD CANOPY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BEING HELD JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AT 60 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL NORTHWESTWARD...OR 305/14 KT. OTHER THAN
MINOR WOBBLES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...NADINE HAS BASICALLY BEEN
ON TRACK. FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO...NADINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS ORIENTED EAST-WEST ALONG
32-33N LATITUDE. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO COME UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE
OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OFF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. OTHER THAN A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD
SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE
TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TV15 THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN
LIES WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THOSE MODELS DUE TO THE GFDL MODEL BEING
A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER WITH ITS FAST NORTHWARD TRACK AT DAYS 4/5.
 
NADINE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AT JUST BELOW
THE RATE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE POSSESSES AN
IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW REGIME THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND AS NADINE
MOVES BETWEEN A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS NORTHEAST AND A
SMALLER LOW TO ITS WEST. THE COMBINATION OF A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
PATTERN AND RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...A SHARP INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP-LAYER TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A CAPPING OF THE INTENSITY BY
36 HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INDUCE SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING AT 48 HOURS
AND BEYOND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL IVCN.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/0300Z 20.7N  50.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  13/1200Z 22.1N  51.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  14/0000Z 24.2N  53.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  14/1200Z 26.4N  54.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  15/0000Z 28.6N  53.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  16/0000Z 30.9N  50.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  17/0000Z 31.8N  44.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  18/0000Z 32.9N  38.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:44 UTC